Whoever wins, Latin America does not expect any changes after the US elections!
“After being considered for years by the United States as its backyard, Latin America is now in the background and does not expect any major changes with the US presidential election. However, Brazil hopes to take advantage of the lack of interest to continue expanding its influence in the region.
While Washington has focused its attention on the Middle East, China, Afghanistan and Iran, Latin America, largely governed by the left, has gained autonomy and created bodies such as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), excluding the United States.
This lack of attention has given Brazil room to grow, to articulate regional policies and to integrate Latin American infrastructure. According to Bruno Borges, an international relations specialist at PUC-Rio, Brazil has become a moderate regional power, which talks to everyone and shows the United States, its main interlocutor in the region, that there is nothing to fear.
China has also gained ground in Latin America, with large investments in raw materials and regional interconnection projects. In 2009, it overtook the United States as Brazil's main trading partner.
Relations between the United States and Latin America are primarily economic and the region "will remain in the background, regardless of whether President Barack Obama or his Republican rival Mitt Romney wins the presidential elections on November 6," said Rubens Barbosa, Brazilian ambassador in Washington.
The region has not benefited much from U.S. foreign policy over the past four years, so it has no clear preference for either candidate, according to Oliver Stuenkel, an international relations specialist at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation.
In their last debate, Obama did not mention Latin America even once, while Romney proposed increasing trade with the region. However, experts say Romney's proposal is unrealistic.
Due to the crisis, not even the Republicans, who traditionally defend free trade, are in a position to increase trade with the region, explained Borges. Washington already has free trade agreements with Mexico, Central America, Panama, Colombia, Peru and Chile. “The other countries, such as Venezuela and other “Bolivarian” countries, do not want a free trade agreement with the United States, and neither do Brazil and Mercosur, because the United States is not going to open up the agricultural sector, which is in our interest,” added Barbosa.
However, a Democratic victory could bring about some changes in Cuba, while a Republican victory could harden the discourse with the “Bolivarian” countries, according to experts. Latin America is no longer a priority for Washington because the conflicts have ended. Chavez is no longer a threat and Cuba is no longer a threat. In addition, the FARC is negotiating peace with the Colombian government, according to Barbosa.
Although Venezuela and the United States do not have diplomatic relations, Chavez sells nearly a million barrels of oil a day to Washington, its main trading partner. The Venezuelan president went so far as to call his Republican predecessor George W. Bush a “donkey” and a “drunk,” but he moderated his tone with Obama. He even declared that if he were an American, he would vote for Obama before being re-elected until 2019.
Rising drug-related violence in Central America and Mexico is a matter of concern for Washington. In Mexico alone, which shares a 3,200-kilometre border with the United States, 60,000 people have died in the past six years due to drug trafficking.
If Obama is re-elected, the stakes for an opening toward Cuba will rise. The president has already eliminated restrictions on remittances and expanded travel licenses to the island. “If Obama wins, he can make a bigger opening, end the embargo or do something dramatic,” Barbosa said.
On the other hand, a Romney victory could result in a more belligerent discourse towards Cuba, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia or Nicaragua, according to Borges. Bolivia also has not had diplomatic relations with the United States since 2008, and a few weeks ago, President Evo Morales said that having good relations with Washington was “bullshit.”
